Analysis Of Factors Affecting the Import Demand for Wheat and Corn in Türkiye Using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method

Abstract Wheat is the raw material of bread and the essential nutrient for continuity of human life. When there is a decrease in wheat production both in the world and in Türkiye, it affects the prices of not only bread but also food products made from flour, and the impact is directly reflected in society. In this context, it is strategically important for all countries to ensure that there is a sufficient amount of wheat products in their stocks. Corn also has a wide range of use after wheat and barley. Corn is an important plant used in both human nutrition and as animal feed. Since the physical structure of the production areas is not suitable for increasing corn production, the volume of corn production in Türkiye fails to meet the amount of consumption. Factors such as drought, the decrease in yield values, the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the economic collapse caused by COVID-19 in recent years have increased the demand for durable dry food products such as wheat and corn. Excessive demand for grain products has caused a record-breaking increase in wheat and corn prices. This study analyzed the factors affecting the import demand for wheat and corn in Türkiye between 2006-2021 with the "Seemingly Unrelated Regressions" method. Only the one-year delayed value of wheat imports, which is one of the explanatory variables in the wheat import model, was found to be significant, according to the study's findings. The wheat import model's variables of per capita national income, wheat import price, total wheat consumption, and the one-year delayed value of wheat production were found to have no momentous effect on the amount of wheat imported. In terms of factors influencing corn import demand, similar results were obtained. Only total corn consumption was found to be statistically noteworthy among the explanatory variables in the corn import model. In the corn import model, it was determined that the variables per capita income, corn import price, one-year delayed value of corn production, and one-year delayed value of corn imports did not remarkably affect the volume of corn imports. Based on these findings, wheat imports are influenced by changes in wheat imports from a year ago, while corn imports are influenced by changes in total corn consumption. JEL Sınıflandırması: Q10, Q17, Q19