A scenario analysis of the energy transition in Japan's road transportation sector based on the LEAP Model

Abstract Japan has lagged behind other developed nations in transitioning its transportation sector to sustainable energy sources. This study employs the Low Emissions Analysis Platform model to examine six scenarios, assessing energy consumption and emissions associated with four major energy sources and pollutants. Our findings reveal an overall decline in total energy consumption across all scenarios. Notably, the Combined scenario where multiple policies are integrated demonstrates the most significant reduction, with a 56% decrease compared to the Business as usual scenario by 2050. The analysis also indicates that the electricity and hydrogen demand for electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles remains economically viable within future strategic plans. Emissions, including CO 2 , Carbon Monoxide (CO), Methane (CH 4 ), and Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O), exhibit substantial reductions, particularly under the Active Promotion Scenario, where a high EV adoption rate is achieved. Moreover, the Combined scenario resulting in a comprehensive and integrated approach, leads to a remarkable 66% decrease in emissions. These results serve as valuable reference points for the Japanese government, aiding in the formulation of future targets for widespread EV adoption and emission standards for pollutants.