Risk assessment of distribution network operation with scale distributed photovoltaics

Abstract In the context of large-scale photovoltaic integration into the distribution network, it is of great significance to comprehensively consider the uncertainty of photovoltaic output and load and scientifically and effectively evaluate the operational risks of the distribution network, in order to ensure the reliable and economic operation of the distribution network. At the same time, with the increase of distributed photovoltaic installed capacity, the small interference stability caused by it has an increasing impact on the operation of the distribution network. In this paper, we first establish a probabilistic model of photovoltaic output and load. Then, we propose a risk calculation method based on the non-sequential Monte Carlo method and probabilistic power flow calculation. Then, a risk analysis of large-scale photovoltaic access to the distribution network was carried out. A new small interference stability risk index was constructed to evaluate the risk of system oscillation caused by photovoltaic access. On this basis, the comprehensive risk value is calculated, and the risk levels are divided based on the voltage over-limit risk and power flow over-limit risk. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the risk assessment model are verified through case analysis.