LEAP model-based analysis to low-carbon transformation path in the power sector: a case study of Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract As a major carbon emitter, the power sector plays a crucial role in realizing the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study constructed a low-carbon power system based on the LEAP model (LEAP-GBA) with 2020 as a statistic base aiming of exploring the low-carbon transformation pathway of the power sector in the Guangdong–Hong Kong, and Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Five scenarios are set up to simulate the demand, power generation structure, carbon emissions, and power generation costs in the power sector under different scenarios. The results indicate that total electricity demand will peak after 2050, with 80% of it coming from industry, buildings and residential use. To achieve net-zero emissions from the power sector in the GBA, a future power generation mix dominated by nuclear and renewable energy generation and supplemented by fossil energy generation equipped with CCUS technologies. BECCS technology and nuclear power are the key to realize zero carbon emissions from the power sector in the GBA, so it should be the first to promote BECCS technology testing and commercial application, improve the deployment of nuclear power sites, and push forward the construction of nuclear power and technology improvement in the next 40 years.