Cattle, conflict, and climate variability: explaining pastoralist conflict intensity in the Karamoja region of Uganda

Abstract Conflicts between pastoralist groups in Africa are rampant and cause numerous deaths each year, but their intensity exhibits significant spatial and temporal variations. Under what conditions do some pastoralist conflicts turn more violent than others? Previous research has shown that climate variability may be a relevant explanatory factor under certain conditions, yet little is known about how specific combinations of conditions jointly affect pastoralist conflict intensity. Moreover, many studies have investigated the link between resource scarcity and conflict, but few have examined how asymmetrical distribution of resources between groups affects levels of violence. This article contributes to filling these gaps through a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of pastoralist conflicts in Karamoja, Uganda—a region characterized by cattle husbandry, communal conflict, and a highly variable climate. Five conditions that are related either to incentives for taking to violence or to opportunity structures are examined and three pathways to high-intensity conflict are identified. The results show that an asymmetrical distribution of resources between pastoralist groups during a drought incentivizes conflict, particularly in remote areas with nearby armed conflicts. The article highlights some implications for future research and policy. First, it shows that this type of conflict cannot be reduced to simple “resource scarcity conflicts” since climate variability only has an effect in combination with other conditions. Second, it emphasizes the need for policy approaches that consider both environmental variability and political contexts in addressing pastoralist violence.