A Dynamic Model of Opioid Overdose Deaths in Canada during the Co-Occurring Opioid Overdose Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic

With over 40,000 opioid-related overdose deaths between January 2016 and June 2023, the opioid-overdose crisis is a significant public health concern for Canada. The opioid crisis arose from a complex system involving prescription opioid use, the use of prescription opioids not as prescribed, and non-medical opioid use. The increasing presence of fentanyl and its analogues in the illegal drugs supply has been an important driver of the crisis. In response to the overdose crisis, governments at the municipal, provincial/territorial, and federal levels have increased actions to address opioid-related harms. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns emerged over how the pandemic context may impact the opioid overdose crisis. Using evidence from a number of sources, we developed a dynamic mathematical model of opioid overdose death to simulate possible trajectories of overdose deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. This model incorporates information on prescription opioid use, opioid use not as prescribed, non-medical opioid use, the level of fentanyl in the drug supply, and a measure of the proportion deaths preventable by new interventions. The simulated scenarios provided decision makers with insight into possible trajectories of the opioid crisis in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the potential of the crisis to take a turn for the worse under certain assumptions, and thus, informing planning during a period when surveillance data were not yet available. This model provides a starting point for future models, and through its development, we have identified important data and evidence gaps that need to be filled in order to inform future action.