Gaza will strain but not break Gulf-Iranian detente

Significance While tensions across the region have risen sharply, Gulf and Iranian officials have engaged in regular and high-level dialogue that has so far prevented a wider conflagration. Incidents such as the April 1 Israeli strike against senior Iranian commanders in Damascus could spark an escalatory cycle, but there is no desire in the Gulf for the war’s regionalisation. Impacts Public anger in states such as Jordan will become harder to manage the longer the Gaza war goes on and the Palestinians' plight worsens. The chance that Yemen’s Huthis would retaliate against US and UK airstrikes by targeting Gulf territories remains low for now. US President Joe Biden will still try to push through a Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal, despite its dim prospects.