Leveraging continuous glucose monitoring for personalized modeling of insulin-regulated glucose metabolism

Abstract Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is a promising, minimally invasive alternative to plasma glucose measurements for calibrating physiology-based mathematical models of insulin-regulated glucose metabolism, reducing the reliance on in-clinic measurements. However, the use of CGM glucose, particularly in combination with insulin measurements, to develop personalized models of glucose regulation remains unexplored. Here, we simultaneously measured interstitial glucose concentrations using CGM as well as plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in individuals with overweight or obesity to calibrate personalized models of glucose-insulin dynamics. We compared the use of interstitial glucose with plasma glucose in model calibration, and evaluated the effects on model fit, identifiability, and model parameters’ association with clinically relevant metabolic indicators. Models calibrated on both plasma and interstitial glucose resulted in good model fit, and the parameter estimates associated with metabolic indicators such as insulin sensitivity measures in both cases. Moreover, practical identifiability of model parameters was improved in models estimated on CGM glucose compared to plasma glucose. Together these results suggest that CGM glucose may be considered as a minimally invasive alternative to plasma glucose measurements in model calibration to quantify the dynamics of glucose regulation.