Prognostic value of the combination of volume, massiveness and fragmentation parameters measured on baseline FDG pet in high-burden follicular lymphoma

Abstract The prognostic value of radiomic quantitative features measured on pre-treatment 18 F-FDG PET/CT was investigated in patients with follicular lymphoma (FL). We conducted a retrospective study of 126 FL patients (grade 1-3a) diagnosed between 2006 and 2020. A dozen of PET/CT-derived features were extracted via a software ( Oncometer3D ) from baseline 18 F-FDG PET/CT images. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Kaplan–Meier method and Cox analysis were used to assess the prognostic factors for progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) and progression-free survival at 24 months. Four different clusters were identified among the twelve PET parameters analyzed: activity, tumor burden, fragmentation-massiveness and dispersion. On ROC analyses, TMTV, the total metabolic tumor volume, had the highest AUC (0.734) followed by medPCD, the median distance between the centroid of the tumors and their periphery (AUC: 0.733). Patients with high TMTV (HR = 4.341; p < 0.001), high Tumor Volume Surface Ratio (TVSR) (HR = 3.204; p < 0.003) and high medPCD (HR = 4.507; p < 0.001) had significantly worse prognosis in both Kaplan–Meier and Cox univariate analyses. Furthermore, a synergistic effect was observed in Kaplan–Meier and Cox analyses combining these three PET/CT-derived parameters (HR = 12.562; p < 0.001). Having two or three high parameters among TMTV, TVSR and medPCD was able to predict POD24 status with a specificity of 68% and a sensitivity of 75%. TMTV, TVSR and baseline medPCD are strong prognostic factors in FL and their combination better predicts disease prognosis.