Exploring the link between CO2 emissions, health expenditure, and economic growth in Türkiye: evidence from the ARDL model

Abstract In recent times, the literature has seen considerable growth in research at the intersection of CO 2 emission, health expenditure, and economic growth. But looking at the literature, it appears that the relationship between health expenditures, CO 2 emissions, and economic growth is unclear. To resolve this uncertainty, this study was conducted with different data, countries, and methods. To this end, the present study analyzed the nexus between CO 2 emissions, health expenditure, and economic growth in Türkiye from 1975 to 2020 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model developed by Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econ 16(3):289–326, 2001). The study reveals a connection between CO 2 emissions, health spending, and economic development in Türkiye over the long term. It also highlights a short-term correlation among these factors. The study indicates that a 1% increase in economic growth results in a 0.553 and 0.297 rise in CO 2 emissions in the short and long term, respectively. That is, it suggests that if economic growth in Türkiye doesn’t involve renewable energy, it could negatively affect CO 2 emissions both in the short and long term. To address this, substantial efforts are needed to transition to low-carbon technologies like renewable energy and energy efficiency, aiming to reduce emissions and support long-term economic growth. The study further demonstrates that a 1% growth in health expenditure leads to a 0.124% decrease in CO 2 emissions over the long term. This implies that Türkiye’s health sector could benefit from utilizing more renewable energy or using fossil fuels more efficiently. Additionally, the study warns that long-term population growth could negatively affect CO 2 emissions in Türkiye.