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This paper focuses on the rapid growth and impact of the New Energy Electric Vehicle (NEV) market globally, conducting a comprehensive study using methods such as Grey Relational Analysis and the BP-ARIMA-Lasso composite model on data from 2008 to 2022. Firstly, a comprehensive index system covering economic, policy, resource, technology, and population dimensions was established, identifying 8 key factors influencing the development of the NEV industry. Subsequently, the constructed model forecasts two significant growth points for China's NEV industry in 2025 and 2028, with an estimated NEV inventory exceeding 240 million units by 2032. Addressing the manufacturer's perspective, an evolutionary game model was formulated for NEVs and Traditional Fuel Vehicles (TFV), revealing that NEVs will increasingly dominate the market share, regardless of initial conditions, with government intervention accelerating this trend. From the consumer standpoint, text mining supplemented data and minimized subjectivity in the Analytic Hierarchy Process, indicating a preference for NEVs due to convenience. Overall, the impact of NEVs on TFVs is primarily manifested in market competition.
Fan et al. (Tue,) studied this question.