The impact of temperature on increased airborne pollen and earlier onset of the pollen season in Trentino, Northern Italy

Abstract The impact of climate change on ecosystems can be assessed through pollen dispersion data, which acts as a proxy for the plant flowering stage. The aim of this study is to verify if changes occurred in the season and concentration of airborne pollen in Trentino (Northern Italy), and to evaluate if temperature (T), precipitation (P), and/or land use influenced such changes in the period 1989–2018. Airborne pollen, sampled by a Hirst-type trap, was analyzed by light microscopy, and pollen concentrations were obtained. Twenty-four taxa, covering 95% of the local pollen spectrum, were considered for this study. A significant upward trend in annual pollen integral (APIn) is the main outcome over the study period. The increase in APIn is more evident when analyzing the data in three decadic blocks, both for all the considered taxa (+ 58%) and for Arboreal Pollen (AP; + 155%). Considering both the annual data and the decadic blocks, APIn shows a significant positive trend for Cupressaceae/Taxaceae, Ulmus , Populus , Salix , Ostrya , Quercus , Olea (AP), and Plantago , Cannabaceae, Ambrosia (non-arboreal pollen, NAP); a significantly earlier start of the Main Pollen Season (MPS) is proved for Rumex and Poaceae. APIn for 24 taxa shows a significant positive correlation with annual T min (< 0.005) and T mean (< 0.001), both of which showing a significant increase, and a negative correlation (< 0.025) with the number of frost days. From a human health perspective, higher temperatures, driven by climate changes, lead to higher concentrations of allergenic airborne pollen, turning into a higher risk for allergy sufferers.