An innovative MGM–BPNN–ARIMA model for China’s energy consumption structure forecasting from the perspective of compositional data

Abstract Effective forecasting of energy consumption structure is vital for China to reach its “dual carbon” objective. However, little attention has been paid to existing studies on the holistic nature and internal properties of energy consumption structure. Therefore, this paper incorporates the theory of compositional data into the study of energy consumption structure, which not only takes into account the specificity of the internal features of the structure, but also digs deeper into the relative information. Meanwhile, based on the minimization theory of squares of the Aitchison distance in the compositional data, a combined model based on the three single models, namely the metabolism grey model (MGM), back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, is structured in this paper. The forecast results of the energy consumption structure in 2023–2040 indicate that the future energy consumption structure of China will evolve towards a more diversified pattern, but the proportion of natural gas and non-fossil energy has yet to meet the policy goals set by the government. This paper not only suggests that compositional data from joint prediction models have a high applicability value in the energy sector, but also has some theoretical significance for adapting and improving the energy consumption structure in China.