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Abstract Chuncheon, being a crucial source of water for three major dams amidst its excellent environmental significance, is facing growing challenges to its water quality and quantity due to the effects of climate change. With the majority of rainfall accumulated during the rainy season, assessing and forecasting these changes becomes important. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model in conjunction with CMIP6 climate change models, considering two scenarios. Through extensive statistical analyses, including the T-TES, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests to identify vulnerable basins and estimate climate and flow changes.Our findings, based on climate change modeling under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, show Daily maximum temperatures are expected to rise by 2.85 to 6.16°C and minimum temperatures by 4.6 to 6.97°C over the coming decade, and annual precipitation is projected to increase by 138.12-214.48 mm throughout these decades, as well as notable changes in flow patterns, notably during the wet season. SWAT model results show excellent calibration and validation, with an acceptable range of R2 values greater than 60, and identifying prone basins for sediment, organic nitrogen, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen for enabling more effective management strategies. While the SWAT-CUP sensitivity analysis shows the soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO) is the most influential parameter, affecting soil water evaporation. Hence, this study gives important insights into the expected effects of climate change on Chuncheon's water resources and water resource managers seeking to implement preventive measures in response to changing climatic conditions.
Sadiqi et al. (Fri,) studied this question.