Recovering Quasi-Biennial Oscillations from Chaos

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is understood to result from wave–mean-flow interactions, but the reasons for its relative stability remain a subject of ongoing debate. In addition, consensus has yet to be reached regarding the respective roles of different equatorial wave types in shaping the QBO’s characteristics. Here, we employ Holton–Lindzen–Plumb’s quasilinear model to shed light on the robustness of periodic behavior in the presence of multiple wave forcings. A comprehensive examination of the various dynamical regimes in this model reveals that increased vertical wave propagation at higher altitudes favors periodicity. In the case of single standing wave forcing, enhanced vertical propagation is controlled by the wave attenuation length scale. The occurrence of nonperiodic states at high forcing amplitudes is explained by the excitation of high vertical unstable modes. Increasing the attenuation length scale prevents the emergence of such modes. When multiple wave forcing is considered, the mean flow generated by a dominant primary wave facilitates greater vertical propagation of a perturbation wave. Raising the altitude where most of the wave damping occurs favors periodicity by preventing the development of secondary jets responsible for the aperiodic behavior. This mechanism underscores the potential role of internal gravity waves in supporting the periodicity of a QBO primarily driven by planetary waves.