Machine learning-based detection of TEC signatures related to earthquakes and tsunamis: the 2015 Illapel case study

Abstract Earthquakes and tsunamis can trigger acoustic and gravity waves that could reach the ionosphere, generating electron density disturbances, known as traveling ionospheric disturbances. These perturbations can be investigated as variations in ionospheric total electron content (TEC) estimated through global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) receivers. The VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation) algorithm is a well-known real-time tool for estimating TEC variations. In this context, the high amount of data allows the exploration of a VARION-based machine learning classification approach for TEC perturbation detection. For this purpose, we analyzed the 2015 Illapel earthquake and tsunami for its strength and high impact. We use the VARION-generated observations (i.e., dsTEC/dt) provided by 115 GNSS stations as input features for the machine learning algorithms, namely, Random Forest and XGBoost. We manually label time frames of TEC perturbations as the target variable. We consider two elevation cut-off time series, namely, 15° and 25°, to which we apply the classifier. XGBoost with a 15° elevation cut-off dsTEC/dt time series reaches the best performance, achieving an F 1 score of 0.77, recall of 0.74, and precision of 0.80 on the test data. Furthermore, XGBoost presents an average difference between the labeled and predicted middle epochs of TEC perturbation of 75 s. Finally, the model could be seamlessly integrated into a real-time early warning system, due to its low computational time. This work demonstrates high-probability TEC signature detection by machine learning for earthquakes and tsunamis, that can be used to enhance tsunami early warning systems.