Long-term outcomes of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source according to subtype

Abstract The prognosis of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) may vary according to the underlying cause. Therefore, we aimed to divide ESUS into subtypes and assess the long-term outcomes. Consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent a comprehensive workup, including transesophageal echocardiography and prolonged electrocardiography monitoring, were enrolled. We classified ESUS into minor cardioembolic (CE) ESUS, arteriogenic ESUS, two or more causes ESUS, and no cause ESUS. Arteriogenic ESUS was sub-classified into complex aortic plaque (CAP) ESUS and non-stenotic (< 50%) relevant artery plaque (NAP) ESUS. A total of 775 patients were enrolled. During 1286 ± 748 days follow-up, 116 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) occurred (4.2 events/100 patient-years). Among the ESUS subtypes, CAP ESUS was associated with the highest MACE frequency (9.7/100 patient-years, p = 0.021). Cox regression analyses showed that CAP ESUS was associated with MACE (hazard ratio 2.466, 95% confidence interval 1.305–4.660) and any stroke recurrence (hazard ratio 2.470, 95% confidence interval, 1.108–5.508). The prognosis of ESUS varies according to the subtype, with CAP ESUS having the worst prognosis. Categorizing ESUS into subtypes could improve patient care and refine clinical trials.