Decoupling effect and influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in Hainan Province,China

Abstract Hainan, as the pioneering province in China to declare a comprehensive ban on the sale of petrol-driven automobiles by 2030, is actively propelling the low-carbon transformation of its transportation industry. Through the integration of the Tapio model and the LMDI method, an exhaustive analysis spanning the years 2006 to 2020 was conducted to scrutinize the decoupling dynamics and influencing factors between carbon emissions in Hainan's transportation industry and the concurrent trajectory of its economic development. The research has yielded noteworthy findings: (1) Total and per capita carbon emissions from transportation exhibit an initial phase of rapid ascent followed by a gradual deceleration, with carbon emissions from oil energy sources constituting an overwhelming 99%, where kerosene stands out as the primary contributor with the highest proportional increase; (2) The decoupling index exhibits an "M" curve trajectory, signifying an overarching trend of initial deterioration succeeded by subsequent improvement, reflecting an unstable decoupling status; (3) With the introduction of urbanization effects, positively driving factors include income urbanization effect, spatial urbanization effect, transportation intensity effect, and industrial structure effect. Conversely, negatively driving factors encompass energy intensity effect, population urbanization effect, and energy structure effect. Among these, the paramount factor propelling an increase in carbon emissions is income urbanization effect, while the paramount factor inhibiting carbon emissions is energy intensity effect. Finally, proposing policy recommendations.