Decomposition of medical imaging spending growth between 2010 and 2021 in the US employer–insured population

Abstract Medical imaging, identified as a potential driver of unsustainable US health care spending growth, was subject to policies to reduce prices and use in low-value settings. Meanwhile, the Affordable Care Act increased access to preventive services—many involving imaging—for employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) beneficiaries. We used a large insurance claims database to examine imaging spending trends in the ESI population between 2010 and 2021—a period of considerable policy and benefits changes. Nominal spending on imaging increased 35.9% between 2010 and 2021, but as a share of total health care spending fell from 10.5% to 8.9%. The 22.5% growth of nominal imaging prices was below inflation, 24.3%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Other key contributors to imaging spending growth were increased use (7.4 percentage points pp), shifts toward advanced modalities (4.0 pp), and demographic changes (3.5 pp). Shifts in care settings and provider network participation resulted in 2.5-pp and 0.3-pp imaging spending decreases, respectively. In sum, imaging spending decreased as a share of all health care spending and relative to inflation, as intended by concurrent cost-containment policies.