Regression based stochastic energy management strategy for a grid connected microgrid using Artificial Electric Field Algorithm

Recent decade has witnessed steep technological advancement in the renewable energy sector due to growing concern of climate change and emission cut target. The lack of availability of fossil fuels and the high price of the same have made the use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) as a promising approach for generating clean and sustainable energy at local level. This persuades the implementation of Microgrid (MG) supported with RES, to cater various types of load demand. However, planning and optimizing a MG operation have become challenging due to the intermittent nature of RES and uncertain loads. To address this issue, this paper introduces a Stochastic Energy Management Strategy (SEMS) for a grid connected MG comprising Photovoltaic, Wind Turbine, Fuel Cell, Micro Turbine, Battery Energy Storage and electrical as well as heat energy demand. The volatilities of RES power output and energy demand are modeled via Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) respectively. The problem is framed as non-linear (NL) dynamic stochastic optimization problem and solved using 'Artificial Electric Field Algorithm (AEFA)'. Here, minimization of expected value of operational and emission cost are taken as objective functions; while various practicality aspects are modeled as constraints in the problem. Further, the efficacy of the proposed approach is validated around the first central moment of the load. Various case studies are performed to estimate the day ahead optimum operating schedule of the Distributed Energy Resources (DER) and to assess the impact of load uncertainties on DER operation and total MG operation cost. Further, the efficacy of the GPR is verified through comparison with MCS based result.