Changes in snow avalanche activity in response to climate warming in the Swiss Alps

Abstract. The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly transforming due to climate warming, yet the impact of these changes on snow avalanche activity remains uncertain. Here, we use a snow cover model driven by downscaled climate projections to evaluate future alterations in dry- and wet-snow avalanche occurrences throughout the 21st century in the Swiss Alps. We assess avalanche activity by employing machine learning models trained with observed records of avalanches. Our findings indicate an overall decline in the occurrence of dry-snow avalanches during the months December to May that is partially compensated by an increase in wet-snow avalanche activity. Depending on elevation and the emission scenario considered, we anticipate a net reduction in total avalanche activity ranging from under 10 % to as much as 60 % by the end of the century. Projections further reveal a shift of wet-snow avalanche activity to earlier winter months. Analysis of changes in prominent snow grain types offers a coherent explanation of projected changes beyond a mere decrease in snow depth and snow cover duration. Overall, our study quantifies for the first time the significant influence of climate change on snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps and may serve as a benchmark for further mountain regions with similar avalanche climates.