Effects of Trade Liberalization on Household Welfare in Kenya

Trade liberalization is commonly pursued to improve welfare of households in a country. However, the effects of liberalization are not evenly distributed. Certain households and sectors may benefit more than others. This study focuses on the East African Community Common External Tariff (EAC-CET), to analyze the distributional effects of trade liberalization in Kenya. The study utilizes two household budget surveys capturing pre- and post-trade liberalization scenarios. The paper examines changes in consumer prices, labor incomes, and consumption patterns to assess the effects of liberalization. A pass-through equation for prices and a negative compensation variation equation are estimated. The findings indicate that the EAC-CET had a significant pass-through effect on prices of manufactured goods, but incomplete pass-through for agricultural goods. This suggests a lack of competitiveness in domestic value chains. The distributional effects differ across worker categories, favoring skilled and formal workers over unskilled and informal workers. The income effect outweighs the negative expenditure effect for households in the middle- and upper-income deciles. However, the study reveals negative welfare effects for the poorest households in the lowest income deciles. Furthermore, the study identifies the EAC-CET to be pro-poor, with households in rural areas benefiting more than those in urban areas.