Post-Transplant Cardiovascular Disease in Kidney Transplant Recipients: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes in the Era of Modern Immunosuppression

Introduction: Post-transplant cardiovascular disease (PTCVD) poses a significant challenge in kidney transplantation, potentially impacting graft outcomes and patient survival. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors, and consequential impact of PTCVD in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) devoid of pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Method: The cohort comprised 1114 KTRs, with 749 individuals included after excluding those with pre-existing CVD and early graft loss. PTCVD encompasses ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, arrhythmias, heart failure, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and valvular heart disease. Competing risk regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of PTCVD, while Cox proportional hazards analysis assessed the impact of PTCVD on graft and recipient survival. Results: The cumulative incidence of PTCVD at 5, 10, and 20 years was 5.4%, 14.3%, and 22.5%, respectively. Competing risk regression identified increased age (sub-hazard ratio SHR, 1.22; p = 0.036) per decade, duration of dialysis (SHR, 1.07; p = 0.048) per year on dialysis, and the slope of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (SHR, 1.08; p = 0.008) mL/min/year decline as independent predictors of higher-risk PTCVD. A higher baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was protective (SHR, 0.98; p = 0.032). PTCVD was not significantly associated with death-censored graft loss (adjusted hazard ratio aHR 1.31; p = 0.48) but was correlated with higher all-cause graft loss (aHR, 1.71; p = 0.011) and recipient mortality (aHR, 1.97; p = 0.004). Conclusion: This study provides insights into PTCVD predictors. Although not directly associated with graft loss, PTCVD significantly correlates with heightened mortality in kidney transplant recipients, emphasizing the need for enhanced clinical management and surveillance strategies.