Rethinking the Factors Affecting the Arrival Quantity and Price of Sawlogs in Japanese Sawmills: An ARDL Approach

We clarified the long- and short-term factors affecting the arrival quantity and price of sawlogs in sawmills in Akita Prefecture, the second largest producer of sugi logs (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) in Japan. In this study, we applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to derive long-term multipliers and reparameterize error correction models (ECMs). We used monthly data from a 157-month study period from April 2009 to April 2022. Our findings showed that sawlog (sugi, 24 cm - 28 cm in diameter) price was associated with lumber price (sugi nuki, special grade) in the long term. However, price was not much affected by the arrival quantity of sawlogs in sawmills. We found the arrival quantity of sawlogs to be associated with the quantity of lumber shipment strongly but not considerably affected by sawlog price. The results showed the importance of the supply and value chains in sawmills. Finally, ECM for arrival quantity revealed a faster error correction speed than that of price shown in the price model.