Determining Desired Speeds from Vehicle Trajectory Data

Desired speed or free speed distributions are important input parameters for microscopic traffic flow simulations. Whereas driven speeds can be measured, desired speeds are not detectable for all vehicles because of vehicles constraining each other. An established approach to estimating desired speed distributions is the modified Kaplan–Meier approach, which estimates desired speed distributions based on single vehicle data from stationary detectors. We propose a novel approach to determine desired speeds based on vehicle trajectory data. The proposed approach, as well as the modified Kaplan–Meier approach, is applied to a trajectory dataset recorded on a German freeway. With the modified Kaplan–Meier approach, we observed that the resulting desired speed distributions vary by approximately 5 km/h depending on the position of the stationary detectors. The desired speed distributions obtained from the trajectory-based approach are approximately 5 to 10 km/h higher than those estimated by the modified Kaplan–Meier approach. This difference in results is probably because the trajectory-based approach observes each vehicle over a longer distance rather than just at stationary points. Nevertheless, it can be concluded that the estimation of desired speed distributions is subject to a certain degree of inaccuracy. The analysis of the vehicle trajectory data revealed a notable intra-vehicle instability in desired speeds, with a difference of 5 to 7 km/h observed for 40% of the vehicles between different periods of free driving. These findings should be considered in the context of calibrating microscopic traffic flow simulations.