Analysis of Meteorological Drivers of Taihu Lake Algal Blooms over the Past Two Decades and Development of a VOCs Emission Inventory for Algal Bloom

Cyanobacterial blooms represent a common environmental issue in aquatic systems, and these blooms bring forth numerous hazards, with the generation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) being one of them. Global climate change has led to alterations in various climatic factors affecting algal growth, indirectly impacting the quantity of VOCs released by algae. With advancements in remote sensing technology, exploration of the spatiotemporal distributions of algae in large water bodies has become feasible. This study focuses on Taihu Lake, characterized by frequent occurrences of cyanobacterial blooms. Utilizing MODIS satellite imagery from 2001 to 2020, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu Lake and its subregions. Employing the LightGBM machine learning model and the (SHapley Additive exPlanations) SHAP values, we quantitatively analyzed the major meteorological drivers influencing cyanobacterial blooms in each region. VOC-related source spectra and emission intensities from cyanobacteria in Taihu Lake are collected based on the literature review and are used to compile the first inventory of VOC emissions from blue-green algae blooms in Taihu Lake. The results indicate that since the 21st century, the situation of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu Lake has continued to deteriorate with increasing variability. The relative impact of meteorological factors varies across different regions, but temperature consistently shows the highest sensitivity in all areas. The VOCs released from the algal blooms increase with the proliferation of the blooms, posing a continuous threat to the atmospheric environment of the surrounding cities. This study aims to provide a scientific basis for further improvement of air quality in urban areas adjacent to large lakes.