Incident Diabetes in Women With Patterns of Gestational Diabetes Occurrences Across 2 Pregnancies

Importance Gestational diabetes is a type 2 diabetes risk indicator, and recurrence further augments risk. In women with a single occurrence across 2 pregnancies, it is unclear whether first- vs second-pregnancy gestational diabetes differ in terms of risk. Objective To compare the hazards of incident diabetes among those with gestational diabetes in the first, in the second, and in both pregnancies with women without gestational diabetes in either. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a retrospective cohort study with cohort inception from April 1, 1990, to December 31, 2012. Follow-up was April 1, 1990, to April 1, 2019. Participants were mothers with 2 singleton deliveries between April 1, 1990, and December 31, 2012, without diabetes before or between pregnancies, who were listed in public health care insurance administrative databases and birth, stillbirth, and death registries in Quebec, Canada. Data were analyzed from July to December 2023. Exposure Gestational diabetes occurrence(s) across 2 pregnancies. Main outcomes and measures Incident diabetes from the second delivery until a third pregnancy, death, or the end of the follow-up period, whichever occurred first. Results The 431 980 women with 2 singleton deliveries studied had a mean (SD) age of 30.1 (4.5) years at second delivery, with a mean (SD) of 2.8 (1.5) years elapsed between deliveries; 373 415 (86.4%) were of European background, and 78 770 (18.2%) were at the highest quintile of material deprivation. Overall, 10 920 women (2.5%) had gestational diabetes in their first pregnancy, 16 145 (3.7%) in their second, and 8255 (1.9%) in both (12 205 incident diabetes events; median IQR follow-up 11.5 5.3-19.4 years). First pregnancy–only gestational diabetes increased hazards 4.35-fold (95% CI, 4.06-4.67), second pregnancy–only increased hazards 7.68-fold (95% CI, 7.31-8.07), and gestational diabetes in both pregnancies increased hazards 15.8-fold (95% CI, 15.0-16.6). Compared with first pregnancy–only gestational diabetes, second pregnancy–only gestational diabetes increased hazards by 76% (95% CI, 1.63-1.91), while gestational diabetes in both pregnancies increased it 3.63-fold (95% CI, 3.36-3.93). Conclusions and relevance In this retrospective cohort study of nearly half a million women with 2 singleton pregnancies, both the number and ordinal pregnancy of any gestational diabetes occurrence increased diabetes risk. These considerations offer greater nuance than an ever or never gestational diabetes dichotomy.