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This paper introduces a novel methodology for index return forecasting, blending highly correlated stock prices, advanced deep learning techniques, and intricate factor integration. Departing from conventional cap-weighted approaches, our innovative framework promises to reimagine traditional methodologies, offering heightened diversification, amplified performance capture, and nuanced market depiction. At its core lies the intricate identification of highly correlated company clusters, fueling predictive accuracy and robustness. By harnessing these interconnected constellations, we unlock a profound comprehension of market dynamics, bestowing both investment entities and individual enterprises with invaluable performance insights. Moreover, our methodology integrates pivotal factors such as indexes and ETFs, seamlessly woven with Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) portfolio optimization, to elevate performance and fortify risk management. This comprehensive amalgamation refines risk diversification, fortifying portfolio resilience against turbulent market forces. The implications reverberate resoundingly. Investment entities stand poised to calibrate against competitors with surgical precision, tactically sidestepping industry-specific pitfalls, and sculpting bespoke investment strategies to capitalize on market fluctuations. Concurrently, individual enterprises find empowerment in aligning strategic endeavors with market trajectories, discerning key competitors, and navigating volatility with steadfast resilience. In essence, this research marks a pivotal moment in economic discourse, unveiling novel methodologies poised to redefine decision-making paradigms and elevate performance benchmarks for both investment entities and individual enterprises navigating the intricate tapestry of financial realms.
Tian et al. (Fri,) studied this question.