Trends in Political Identity: Where Does Taiwan Go from Here?

Trends in Political Identity:Where Does Taiwan Go from Here? Brian Hioe (bio) Taiwan's 2024 presidential election resulted in a win for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), awarding power to the party for an unprecedented third consecutive term under Lai Ching-te. His win can largely be attributed to the public's perception of more stable governance under the DPP as well as its preference for the DPP's cross-strait stance to that of the other major party in Taiwan politics, the Kuomintang (KMT). Yet the results were mixed for the DPP. Lai did not win by the same margins as his predecessor, President Tsai Ing-wen, reflecting popular discontent toward the party for failing to resolve economic woes that have long plagued Taiwan. As a result of failing to win a majority, the DPP lost control of the legislature. On the one hand, this in some ways reflects a reversion to the status quo—the only time that a non-KMT political party controlled the Taiwanese legislature has been during the eight years of the Tsai administration. On the other hand, given that the DPP and KMT performed nearly evenly in the legislature results, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), a recently established third party, may hold the decisive balance of power going forward. The DPP is a center-left party that historically has leaned in the direction of Taiwanese independence. It is denoted by the color green and leads a coalition of smaller progressive parties (pan-green). The party emerged from Taiwan's democracy movement and has since aimed to moderate its pro-independence origins. The KMT is the former ruling party from the authoritarian era. Following Taiwan's democratization, it has continued into the present as a right-leaning party that favors closer relations with China. It is marked by the color blue and leads a coalition of smaller conservative parties (pan-blue). The TPP, as a newer entrant, is pan-blue-leaning and politically closer to the KMT on cross-strait relations, while its stance between liberalism and conservatism on domestic social issues is as yet undefined. What, then, are we to make of the election outcome? Poll after poll shows that Taiwanese identity continues to be on the rise, with declines in Chinese identity and mutual identity (identifying both as End Page 81 Taiwanese and Chinese).1 Such trends are particularly visible among young people, who overwhelmingly identify as Taiwanese and not Chinese. However, it is not the case that rising identity trends will entail the DPP's certain victory in future election cycles. The KMT continues to be a viable political force. To this extent, the biggest puzzle from the 2024 election may be the rise of the TPP. Despite its pan-blue leanings, the party seems to be supported by a large number of young people. This essay assesses the role and strength of the two main traditional political identities in Taiwan, the KMT and the DPP, and looks at how factors such as the role of third parties, voter demographics, domestic economic and social policies, and the cross-strait issue played into the 2024 presidential and legislative election outcomes. It argues that the DPP maintained the presidency more as a result of pan-blue weaknesses and public preference for its stance on the cross-strait status quo than on the basis of a strong popular mandate. The KMT and Pan-Blue Identity Splits within the pan-blue coalition Had the KMT and TPP been able to unite behind a joint presidential ticket, it would have likely resulted in a defeat for the DPP. Recognizing that this was the case, the two parties undertook a convoluted series of negotiations in October 2023. However, their joint ticket dissolved spectacularly in November during a televised press conference when the TPP and KMT candidates rowed publicly on national television.2 The pan-blue camp faced challenges cementing a joint ticket from the onset. Before the dissolution of the KMT-TPP ticket, business magnate and Foxconn founder Terry Gou also sought to run as an independent. But the reason why no combination of Gou, Ko Wen-je, or Hou Yu-ih was able to unite...