A mortality indicator in acute pulmonary embolism: the inferior vena cava contrast reflux score feasibility

Objective: Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is frequently associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Numerous studies have investigated the prognostic significance of cardiovascular computed tomography (CT) parameters. This study aimed to investigate potential CT scan predictors of 24-hour mortality in APE and to evaluate the value of the inferior vena cava (IVC) reflux score calculated on CT scan in predicting mortality. Methods: This study was a single-center, retrospective study. Approval from the local ethics committee (decision no. 2023/76) was obtained before patients’ data scanning. Patients who were admitted to the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary education and research hospital in Turkey between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021, who were diagnosed with APE at CT scan in the ED and whose treatment was started, and who did not meet the exclusion criteria were included in the study. The relationship between CT scan findings and early and late mortality was evaluated. Results: The study population comprised 226 patients, meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Of the 226 patients, a total of 39 (17.3%) patients died, 16 (7.1%) within the first 24 hours. In evaluating CT scan parameters, the inferior vena cava (IVC) reflux score showed a statistically significant difference between the groups with and without mortality (24-hour P=0.001; 30-day P=0.001). Patients who died within the first 24-hour and 30-day after admission showed a reflux grade 3 into IVC more often than survivors (24-hour odds ratio (OR): 14.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.64,58.1; P=0.001); 30-day (OR: 6.54, 95% CI: 2.51,16.98; P=0.001). However, other CT parameters were evaluated, and no statistical relationship was found between the groups with and without mortality. Conclusion: The cardiovascular CT scan findings may not be suitable for use as predictors of mortality. However, the IVC reflux score may be a good indicator of both early and late mortality.