The predictions of seven cancers burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 2020 to 2030

Abstract Background High fasting plasma glucose (High-FPG) is a major contributory but neglected factor for the risk of neoplastic transformation, progression and mortality. Estimating the global cancer burden attributable to High-FPG is essential for effective interventions. Methods We projected the change in the global cancer burden attributable to High-FPG from 2020 to 2030 by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Then we depicted the projected age-standardized rate of cancer-related death and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to High-FPG by sex, region and cancer types. Results Globally, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of cancer attributable to High-FPG increased from 1990 to 2019, and will increase to 109.79 and 5.97 per 100,000 population by 2030, respectively. The ASDR and ASMR will be higher in males than females all along and positively with SDI levels. Except for the high-middle SDI regions where ASDR is expected to decline from 110.18 per 100 000 in 2020 to 100.12 per 100 000 in 2030, all other SDI regions are expected to show an upward trend. Comparing with the rapid increase in low SDI areas, the uptrends of High-FPG-related cancer burden in high SDI regions is expected to flatten from 2020 to 2030. Overall, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBLC), colon and rectum cancer (CRC), and breast cancer will still account for more than three-quarters of the total cancer burden related to High-FPG, and still be the top three among 7 cancers. Conclusion In the next decade, the global burden of cancer attributed to High-FPG will go on increasing progressively, and TBLC, CRC, and breast cancer will remain particularly prominent. High and high-middle SDI regions have a significantly higher burden. While this burden will increase rapidly in lower SDI regions, which further exacerbates the burden globally. Targeted and effective measures to control the burden of High-FPG-related cancer should be customized and implemented.