Risk factors and clinical prediction models for prolonged mechanical ventilation after heart valve surgery

Abstract Objectives Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is a common complication following cardiac surgery linked to unfavorable patient prognosis and increased mortality. This study aimed to search for the factors associated with the occurrence of PMV after valve surgery and to develop a risk prediction model. Methods The patient cohort was divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of PMV post-surgery. Comprehensive preoperative and intraoperative clinical data were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify risk factors contributing to the incidence of PMV. Based on the logistic regression results, a clinical nomogram was developed. Results The study included 550 patients who underwent valve surgery, among whom 62 (11.27%) developed PMV. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age (odds ratio OR = 1.082, 95% confidence interval CI = 1.042–1.125; P < 0.000), current smokers (OR = 1.953, 95% CI = 1.007–3.787; P = 0.047), left atrial internal diameter index (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.002–1.081; P = 0.041), red blood cell count (OR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.275–0.876; P = 0.016), and aortic clamping time (OR = 1.031, 95% CI = 1.005–1.057; P < 0.017) independently influenced the occurrence of PMV. A nomogram was constructed based on these factors. In addition, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.782 and an accuracy of 0.884. Conclusion Age, current smokers, left atrial diameter index, red blood cell count, and aortic clamping time are independent risk factors for PMV in patients undergoing valve surgery. Furthermore, the nomogram based on these factors demonstrates the potential for predicting the risk of PMV in patients following valve surgery.