Production Forecasting at Natural Gas Wells

In Romania, natural gas production is concentrated in two large producers, OMV Petrom and Romgaz. However, there are also smaller companies in the natural gas production area. In these companies, the deposits are mostly mature, or new deposits have low production capacity. Thus, the production forecast is very important for the continued existence of these companies. The model is based on the pressure variation in the gas reservoir, and the exponential model with production decline is currently used by gas and oil producers. Following the variation in the production of the gas wells, we found that in many cases, the Gaussian and Hubbert forecast models are more suitable for simulating the production pattern of gas wells. The models used to belong to the category of poorly conditioned models, with little data, usually called gray models. Papers published in this category are based on data collected over a period of time and provide a forecast of the model for the next period. The mathematical method can lead to a very good approximation of the known data, as well as short-term forecasting in the continuation of the time interval, for which we have these data. The neural network method requires more data for the network learning stage. Increasing the number of known variables is conducive to a successful model. Often, we do not have this data, or obtaining it is expensive and uneconomical for short periods of possible exploitation. The network model sometimes captures a fairly local pattern and changing conditions require the model to be remade. The model is not valid for a large category of gas wells. The Hubbert and Gauss models used in the article have a more comprehensive character, including a wide category of gas wells whose behavior as evolutionary stages is similar. The model is adapted according to practical observations by reducing the production growth period; the layout is asymmetric around the production peak; and the production range is reduced. Thus, an attempt is made to replace the exponential model with the Hubbert and Gauss models, which were found to be in good agreement with the production values. These models were completed using the Monte Carlo method and matrix of risk evaluation. A better appreciation of monthly production, which is an important aspect of supply contracts, and cumulative production, which is important for evaluating the utility of the investment, is ensured. In addition, we can determine the risk associated with the realization of production at a certain moment of exploitation, generating a complete picture of the forecast over the entire operating interval. A comparison with production results on a case study confirms the benefits of the forecasting procedure used.