Backsliding versus Backlash: Do Challenges to Democracy in East Central Europe Threaten LGBTQIAP Empowerment?

If third-wave democratization propelled gains in lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersexual, asexual, and pansexual (LGBTQIAP) empowerment globally, does the contemporary wave of democratic backsliding imperil those gains? To what extent does the potential threat from such institutional erosion depend on the presence of right-wing populists in government, i.e., backlash? Can both threats be moderated by international pressure? Here, I present a theoretical framework for analyzing the interaction of backsliding, backlash, and international leverage as they impact LGBTQIAP empowerment. I then empirically probe this model’s plausibility by analyzing annual changes in LGBT empowerment through 2020 in fourteen new democracies in east central Europe. (The empirical analysis uses the narrower category “LGBT” because of data limitations.) I find that when neither backsliding nor backlash is present, LGBT empowerment expands regardless of international leverage. When both are present, however, international leverage is critical. If leverage is low, I find that LGBT empowerment declines, and the magnitude of losses in empowerment is greater than the magnitude of gains when neither is present. If leverage is high, simultaneous backlash and backsliding are associated with gains in LGBT empowerment. Even if the latter gains may be seen more as “pink-washing” than as sustainable and genuine change, these findings underline the importance of paying attention to international context when analyzing LGBTQIAP politics as the third wave ebbs.