Bamboo in a storm: the Russia-Ukraine war and Vietnam’s foreign policy (2022–2024)

This article examines the strategic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Vietnam's foreign policy and Vietnam's responses to the war. It argues that although the war has triggered diverse, even opposing, responses from Vietnam's ruling elite, it has not changed the general direction of Vietnam's foreign policy because it has not directly and fundamentally affected Vietnam's quest for security, resources, and identity. However, the war posed moral and strategic dilemmas for Hanoi, tore the web of geopolitical partnerships upon which Vietnam relied to secure its place in the world, and threatened to shake Russia's unique and critical role in Vietnam's foreign relations. Hanoi responded by reinforcing the current paradigm of its foreign policy, performing a delicate balancing act between the great powers, and deepening ties with the major powerhouses in its surrounding region. By taking 'one step backward, then two steps forward' in its relations with the United States, Hanoi succeeded in keeping both Moscow and Washington close to itself despite their mutual hostility. Its loyalty to Moscow helped to keep Russia on its side rather than on Beijing's side in the South China Sea. In the long term, however, the costs of this 'bamboo diplomacy' may outweigh its benefits.