Taekwondo win-loss determining factors using data mining-based decision tree analysis: focusing on game analysis for evidence-based coaching

Abstract Background Purpose In this study, the purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of winning and losing in taekwondo by applying decision tree analysis, one of the data mining techniques, based on the 2022 World taekwondo championships women’s competition. Methods 272 women’s games in the taekwondo championships in Guadalajara held by the WT in 2022 were used. For data processing, an independent sample t-test was performed for differences in game content variables according to the win/lose group, and a decision tree analysis was performed to confirm game content variables affecting the win/lose group. To check the predictive power of the model, classification accuracy, standard error, and misclassification estimates were calculated. All statistical significance levels were set at 0.05. Results First, it was found that there was no statistically significant difference only in body attack (attempt) and number of kicking variables according to the winning and losing groups( p > .05), and there were differences in all other game content variables( p < .05). Second, as a result of conducting a decision tree analysis to confirm the determinants of winning and losing in taekwondo sparring, winning situation, tie situation, and number of kicks were identified as important variables. Conclusion The World taekwondo championships are analyzed in the currently changed taekwondo competition rules to identify important factors, and at the same time, based on this, data-based coaching is expected to improve performance.