The Effect of Family Members’ Perceived Upward Mobility on Marriage and Childbirth Using Heckman Sample Selection Model

This study analyzed the effect of perceived upward mobility of parents and children in marriage and during childbirth using the two-stage Heckman sample selection mode in 20 to 44-year-olds living in Seoul. The main results are as follows: First, high economic and residential stability increased the probability of marriage and having numerous children. Furthermore, unstable and poor housing environments were identified as factors that increased the likelihood of being unmarried and not having children. Third, it was found that social conflict is a negative factor in marriage; however, childbirth was determined by personal circumstances rather than macroscopic social issues. Furthermore, well-equipped care and childcare infrastructure was associated with an increase in the number of children. Even if the possibility of the upward mobility of parents is not high, the more the possibility of upward mobility of children is, the higher the probability of marriage. Sixth, it was found that there should be at least a moderate level of parents' and a high level of children's upward mobility to increase the possibility of childbirth. Despite spending huge amount of money to address the low birth rate, the fertility rate in Korea continues to decline, thereby resulting in concerns about the national extinction beyond the population cliff. Hence, this study suggests detailed policy directions aimed to increase marriage and childbirth rates.