How much of the variance in functional outcome related to intracerebral hemorrhage volume is already apparent in neurological status at admission?

Abstract Background Hematoma volume is a major pathophysiological hallmark of acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We investigated how the variance in functional outcome induced by the ICH volume is explained by neurological deficits at admission using a mediation model. Methods Patients with acute ICH treated in three tertiary stroke centers between January 2010 and April 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Mediation analysis was performed to investigate the effect of ICH volume (0.8 ml (5% quantile) versus 130.6 ml (95% quantile)) on the risk of unfavorable functional outcome at discharge defined as modified Rankin Score (mRS) ≥ 3 with mediation through National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at admission. Multivariable regression was conducted to identify factors related to neurological improvement and deterioration. Results Three hundred thirty-eight patients were analyzed. One hundred twenty-one patients (36%) achieved mRS ≤ 3 at discharge. Mediation analysis showed that NIHSS on admission explained 30% 13%; 58% of the ICH volume-induced variance in functional outcome at smaller ICH volume levels, and 14% 4%; 46% at larger ICH volume levels. Higher ICH volume at admission and brainstem or intraventricular location of ICH were associated with neurological deterioration, while younger age, normotension, lower ICH volumes, and lobar location of ICH were predictors for neurological improvement. Conclusion NIHSS at admission reflects 14% of the functional outcome at discharge for larger hematoma volumes and 30% for smaller hematoma volumes. These results underscore the importance of effects not reflected in NIHSS admission for the outcome of ICH patients such as secondary brain injury and early rehabilitation.