#2404 Predictors of mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3-4 without heart disease

Abstract Background and Aims Cardiovascular disease is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This may, at least in part, explain the high risk of mortality in this patient group. The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with mortality in patients with CKD stages 3 and 4 without a diagnosis of heart disease. Method Study subjects were derived from a cohort of patients with CKD stages 3 and 4 who were recruited from our Nephrology Outpatient Clinic between February 2009 and December 2011. Ninety-one patients without a diagnosis of heart disease were included in this cross-sectional study. Mortality data were collected in April 2023. Results All-cause mortality was 28.6% (26 patients) during a mean follow-up of 11.2 ± 2.7 years. Comparison of baseline data between non-survivors and survivors showed that non-survivors were significantly older, had lower glomerular filtration rate (GFR), higher ambulatory systolic blood pressure (ASBP), less nocturnal dipping of ASBP, higher carotid–femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) and higher serum levels of troponin T (TnT) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) Tables 1 and 2. In addition, the proportion of patients with diabetes and on treatment with beta-blockers was elevated in non-survivors Tables 1 and 2. There were no statistically significant differences between groups in smoking history, treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, diuretics, calcium channel blockers, alpha-blockers, statins, active vitamin D analogs, calcium-based or non-calcium-based phosphate binders. In a binary logistic regression analysis, to identify independent predictors of mortality, we included age, gender, baseline GFR, serum NT-proBNP, TnT, cfPWV, percent of nocturnal dipping of ASBP, diagnosis of diabetes, and treatment with beta-blockers. Only less nocturnal dipping of ASBP (Exp β value of 0.86, 95% CI 0.77–0.97, p = 0.016) and advancing age (Exp β value of 0.91, 95% CI 0.84–0.99, p = 0.024) significantly predicted all-cause mortality. Conclusion In patients with CKD stage 3 and 4 without a diagnosis of heart disease only older age and less nocturnal dipping of ASBP were independently associated with mortality. Although baseline levels of serum NT-proBNP and TnT were elevated in non-survivors, neither serum NT-proBNP nor TnT showed independent associations with mortality in this cohort.