Research on Short-Term Bus Net Load Forecasting Considering Distributed Photovoltaic

With the extensive integration of distributed photovoltaic into the distribution network, the generation from these distributed sources offsets a portion of the actual load, inducing deviations in bus load and overall power system load values. Consequently, traditional power load forecasting fails to precisely reflect the genuine values of bus and power system loads. To effectively coordinate the flexible consumption of distributed photovoltaic and ensure power equilibrium between generation and consumption, this research presents a two-stage restoration approach. It establishes a forecasting model for the net load of the bus, encompassing a power load forecasting model for the bus and a forecasting model for distributed photovoltaic power. The impact mechanism of distributed photovoltaic integration on power system and bus load forecasting is analyzed, followed by numerical simulations using actual data from a provincial power grid, thus validating the proposed method's capability to reasonably and accurately predict the net load of bus incorporating distributed photovoltaic.