Determinants of radiographic progression in early psoriatic arthritis: insights from a real-world cohort

Objective Persistent articular inflammation in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is associated with radiographic damage. Despite advances in diagnosis and therapy, radiographic structural damage remains prevalent in PsA. To elucidate this topic, we studied which baseline clinical characteristics determine radiographic progression. Methods For this analysis, data were used from DEPAR (Dutch South West Psoriatic Arthritis) Study, a real-world cohort of patients with newly diagnosed PsA. Radiographic changes were assessed using the modified Total Sharp/van der Heijde Score (mTSS) for PsA. Univariable–multivariable mixed-effects negative binomial regression analysis was applied to define baseline predictors for radiographic progression over time. Results The study included 476 patients with early PsA with 1660 hand and feet radiographs from four different time points (baseline, first, second and third year). The progressive group (n=71) had a higher mTSS compared with the non-progressive group (n=405) at diagnosis (17 (3–36) vs 0 (0–1)). A comparison of the two groups revealed that the progressive group had significantly older (59 (12) vs 49 (13)) and a higher rate of the presence of swollen joints (93% vs 78%) at diagnosis. Multivariable analysis identified age (incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.10, p=0.000), sex (female) (IRR=0.48, p=0.043) and baseline mTSS (IRR=1.11, p=0.000) as significant determinants of radiographic change over time. For the progressive subset, additionally, the multivariable analysis highlighted baseline Disease Activity in PSoriatic Arthritis (IRR=1.05, p=0.006) and swollen joint count (IRR=1.07, p=0.034) as predictors. Conclusions According to this real-world cohort, patients with early PsA exhibit minimal radiographic progression under current treatment protocols. This study indicates that while old age and initial radiographic damage predict progression, female sex confers a protective effect on it. Furthermore, disease activity score and swollen joints emerged as predictors for radiographic changes during the follow-up in progressive patients.