Predicting mortality in patient with ischemic stroke: a survival analysis

Introduction:Stroke is the most common cause of disability, and the second leading cause of mortality in the world (1) which make it a worldwide health issue.prevalent neurological disease with a prevalence of 80.1 million cases globally in 2016 (2).Ischemic stroke (AIS), which accounts for approximately 80% of stroke cases.Many cardiac risk factors are related to AIS.To the best of our knowledge, no study has comprehensively investigated hypertension outcomes among stroke patients in Algeria according to gender.The aim of our study is to long-term health outcomes after acute ischemic stroke and analyse the association between gender, hypertension and poor survival outcomes. Material and methods:We conducted a descriptive and analytic cohort study, with prospective data collection among patients, admitted in the emergency ward of Lamine Debaghine hospital Algiers.All ischemic stroke from January 2022 to January 2024 were included in the study.The approval of patients was obtained for using their medical records.The mortality risk associated with risk factors known in the literature was studied such as the following variables: gender, prior stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, hypertension, diabetes and cardiopathy.Long-term follow-up data, including mortality.Data were analysed by a survival curve using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results:In the present study, 30 patients died.among patients with a history of arterial hypertension, 4/13 women died.21/40 men died.the survival time in hours was calculated.The cumulative proportion of survivors in hypertensive men was 97.5% and 87.5% at 72 hours of life compared to 92.3% in women after 72 hours of life.At 96 hours it reaches 77.2% in men, 76.9% in women and stops there.Meanwhile, for men, at 120h it reached 74.3%, at 144h it became 68.2%, at 168h it reached 61% until 720h where it reached 0%.Men with no history of hypertension reached 648 hours of life (approximately 31 days) before the end of the study. Discussion:In our study 74.7% of the cases had hypertension which had a significant p-value (< 0.05),when associated to death.As stated by literature, hypertension is the most prevalent and modifiable risk factor for stroke and is associated with worsened outcomes.studies recognized gender as a predicting factor of poor outcome.Kaplan Meier survival curve indicating survival time in hours.At 24h surviving in male gender with hypertension 97.5% and 87.5% at 72h versus 92.3% in female gender after 72h.At 96h it reached 77.2 % in male gender, 76.9% in female gender and stopped there.survival time in men reached 720 h, during the uncensored study period