Landslide Warning Area Delineation through Seismic Signals and Landslide Characteristics: Insights from the Silabaku Landslide in Southern Taiwan

Abstract Publishing timely warnings of areas potentially affected by landslides and subsequent events remains challenging in hazard assessment. Recently, seismic monitoring has emerged as a promising technique for landslide detection and location determination. However, the effectiveness of this approach is limited by location errors. To overcome this problem, we propose a hybrid method (a three-step process) through seismic analysis and consideration of prior geomorphological characteristics of areas and aspects in a landslide inventory to constrain the potential landslide locations. The first analysis entails a grid-based single-force inversion of 0.02–0.05 Hz seismic signals by spatial grid spacings of 0.2° and 0.05° to retrieve the single-force direction, the estimated landslide area, and a wide search range for a given source. The second analysis involves two location methods for high-frequency seismic signals (1 Hz) with a finer spatial grid spacing of 0.01°, gradually reducing the landslide search region. By integrating seismology-determined information with a landslide inventory, potential landslide locations and warning areas could be identified effectively. Then we apply the proposed the three-step analysis method to the 2021 Silabaku landslide in southern Taiwan. The results showed that the seismic techniques we used progressively condensed the initial search range from 1831 to 770 km2, converging to a small area of 99 km2. The estimated landslide area was 0.80±0.04 km2, and the force direction was 154.09° ± 6.76°. Subsequently, according to the earlier information, we identified three possible landslide source locations from the 2020 landslide inventory. These findings have implications for warning for two road sections, one of which was subsequently damaged by debris flow after the Silabaku landslide. This study highlights the effectiveness of the hybrid three-step algorithm in constraining areas potentially affected by landslides, facilitating timely assessments for warnings in southern Taiwan.