Assessing grocery shopping behaviors during a health crisis

Though pandemics are relatively rare, epidemics, health crises, and other disasters are not. This study analyzes how people accessed essential goods, specifically groceries, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is likely representative of how consumers will behave during comparable crises. Specifically, the study explores shopping channels and transportation implications related to public health measures and various population characteristics in the United States and California. The analyses evidenced geographic differences, which the study explores in the Sacramento Area Council of Governments region. This research uses data from several time-varying sources to perform (1) aggregate or population-level (using local projections methodology) and (2) disaggregate or individual-level (using multinomial logit, MNL, models) analyses. The MNL models explore personal attributes related to shopping channel choices using the COVID-19 Future Survey (Salon et al., 2021). The disaggregate analysis explores basket size, trip and order/delivery frequencies, and complementary or substitution shopping patterns collected from the study region (Forscher et al., 2021). COVID-19 led to increased adoption of online grocery shopping, though most people still visited the store. Aggregate patterns show that grocery store visits quickly returned to the pre-COVID-19 baseline, with influences from increased COVID-19 cases and mask mandates. Even more, the authors model the revealed preferences of survey participants and identify groups that may have experienced additional barriers or benefits to adopting a shopping channel. This study identifies income, ability status, and age as significant considerations for equitable access to essential goods during a crisis. The findings of this study can inform planning and policy efforts to minimize harm in future crises.