Assessing the impact of socio-economic factors on public health in Russia

Negative demographic processes in Russia and its regions substantiate the relevance of exploring the impact of socio-economic factors on public health in Russia. A dynamic nature of economic and social changes in the conditions and lifestyle contribute to both changes in reproductive behaviour of the population and attitude to health. Despite the development of medical technologies in Russia, the health of the Russian population remains a constant government and public concern. Death rates, despite a downward trend, remain rather high compared to other countries. This situation calls for a higher effectiveness of the adopted national projects and programs on demographic development and health protection of the Russian population, which is largely dependable upon the level of understanding of the mechanisms of influence by decision-makers, necessitating monitoring over the impact of socio-economic factors on demographic processes. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological tools to determine the impact of socio-economic factors on the dynamics in crude death rate as one of the most important indicators characterizing public health. The study novelty is the proposed methodological approach to modeling the impact of socio-economic factors on mortality dynamics based on panel data for 2005-2021 using machine learning tools and methods, in particular the decision tree method. The information base of the study includes panel data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on demographic processes in the Russian Federation and its regions. Five intervals characterizing peculiar features of socio-economic processes in each time period have been singled out from the overall period under study. The study results can be used to adjust measures aimed at implementing national projects and regional health protection programs with due regard to the impact of the factor groups on the required indicator.