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The ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) was signed to facilitate market access and bolster economic cooperation among member countries. Singapore, one of the countries of the ASEAN group, is India's 8th largest trade partner. The article estimated the causal effect of AIFTA on India-Singapore exports. Employing the synthetic control methodology the study empirically examines the relationship between AIFTA and exports between the two countries. We establish the causal influence of the AIFTA by constructing a synthetic control unit of ten country pairs that lack any free trade agreement signed between them. The synthetic control unit closely mimics the export patterns between India and Singapore before treatment. We, then compare its post AIFTA export pattern with the actual export trends of India-Singapore. The export gap between India and Singapore and the synthetic unit highlights the near alignment of trends before AIFTA and a subsequent divergence post-AIFTA. India-Singapore exports grew significantly by an average of 40 percent from 2010 to 2022. These results underline the significance of policy evaluations and provide policymakers in Singapore and India with useful information for fostering future cooperation and expansion.
Jain et al. (Sat,) studied this question.