The Groundwater Management in the Mexico Megacity Peri-Urban Interface

Megacities boost peri-urban socioeconomic development but fulfill their high natural resource demands by overexploitation, yielding irreversible environmental damage in surroundings that turn into sacrifice zones. This study reports the effects on the Cuautitlán-Pachuca Valley, the Mexico City main expansion zone at the northeast of the metropolitan area on the Central Mexico plateau, the trend scenarios from 2020 to 2050, and the actions to mitigate the growing water demand that will worsen its aquifer overexploitation. We designed a conceptual archetype to apply the Water Evaluation and Planning System (W.E.A.P.) mathematical model calibrated with 2013–2014 data to calculate groundwater volume demand in future scenarios. The demand output for the international airport and agriculture was less than 5%. The local climate change effect up to 2050 will slightly reduce the infiltration. The most crucial water demand increase (195% in 2050) is due to the population and industrial growth of the Mexico City northern municipalities (89% of the total groundwater extraction volume), and the aquifer will have a notable −2192.3 hm3 accumulated deficit in 2050, while urban sprawl will decrease water infiltration by 2.3%. Mitigation scenarios such as rainwater harvesting may reduce the urban water supply only by 9%, and a leak cutback will do so by 24%, which is still insufficient to achieve sustainable water management in the future. These outcomes emphasize the need to consider other actions, such as importing water from near aquifers and treating wastewater reuse to meet the future water demand.