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Semiconductor manufacturing (fab) is a complex and precise industry. On top of that, the industry is extremely high cost, so it is crucial to get as accurate as possible when planning the Fab's capacity. However, due to the nature of the industry there are many dynamic factors that play a role in capacity planning that are hard to model into one precise capacity model. In this paper, we proposed to use Monte Carlo Method to simulate the Fab performance and provide a quick high-level prediction of possible performance detractors affecting Fab output. This can help to plan for more support on areas that are predicted to be uncertain/risky. Overall, this simulation can help guide to better decision making and protect Fab output commitments.
Finlay et al. (Mon,) studied this question.