CPSM: A Dynamic Simulation Model for Cucumber Productivity in Solar Greenhouse Based on the Principle of Effective Accumulated Temperature

The Cucumber Productivity Simulation Model (CPSM) was developed to precisely predict the dynamic process of cucumber productivity in a solar greenhouse. This research conducted a variety of sowing experiments and collected data on cucumber productivity and meteorological conditions from 2013 to 2015 and 2018 to 2020. Employing the principles of least squares, the relationship between cucumber productivity indicators and effective accumulated temperature (EAT) was fitted, determining key crop parameters and constructing the CPSM. Validation of the model was conducted using independent experimental data, evaluating its simulation accuracy. The results indicate that (1) CPSM can dynamically and meticulously simulate the formation process of different productivity indicators in cucumber. Normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) ranged from 0.44% to 19.64%, and mean relative errors (MRE) ranged from 0.31% to 17.23% across different productivity indicator models. The models for organ water content, maximum root length, specific leaf area, and organ fresh weight distribution index demonstrated high simulation accuracy, while others showed relatively high accuracy. (2) Simulation accuracy varied with indicators and varieties. 19 indicators (34.55%) exhibited high simulation accuracy and 30 indicators (54.55%) showed relatively high accuracy. The JY35 variety (10.44 ± 8.49%) outperformed the JS206 variety (13.44 ± 8.50%) in terms of simulation accuracy. The JY35 variety had 39 superior productivity indicators (70.91%) while the JS206 variety had sixteen (29.09%). CPSM utilizes easily accessible temperature data as its input, allowing for precise and detailed simulation of productivity indicators for cucumber production in solar greenhouses. This research lays a theoretical foundation and provides technical support for guiding intelligent production management, efficient utilization of agricultural resources, and climate change productivity assessment in solar greenhouse cucumber production.