Geopolitical Risk and Cryptocurrency Market Volatility

This paper uses a state-dependent local projection model to empirically test the dynamic risk performance of cryptocurrency assets under geopolitical risk events, and to examine whether they have safe-haven properties in the face of major global external shocks. We demonstrate that the volatility of the cryptocurrency market exhibits a non-linear relationship with geopolitical risk. They are uncorrelated in normal times, but the risk of cryptocurrency market rises significantly under extreme geopolitical risk events. The cumulative impulse response pattern of volatility in the cryptocurrency market is similar to that of volatility in speculative assets such as stocks and bonds, but negatively correlated with that of volatility in safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar. Our findings suggest that the volatility of cryptocurrencies should not be underestimated when investors consider hedging strategies under external shocks.